Saturday, June 02, 2007

GOP Incumbents Up For Re-election Or Retirement, Double Dems

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The composition of the Senate going into the 2008 election will include 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who both caucus with Democrats). Of the seats up for election in 2008, 21 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats.

Above and Map Source: Wikipedia, 2007

It should be noted that any analysis political scientists do leads to one major conclusion, the Republicans have the most to lose in 2008. Statistically the change in the Senate alone, stands to beat the take over of US Congress by the "Contract of America" led by Newt Gingrich in 1994.

As this is a Presidential election year also, election fund-raising will be spread thinner than perhaps ever in history, as consistently Republicans have to spend almost double the amount spent by Dems in order to win by a thin margin.

With so many running for President as well, the competition for political money is at a fever pitch. And, as never before, middle lass Americans are expected to contribute more money because of the very organized and convenient machines developed for the internet.

As there are no statistical models for us to use in forecasting the cost per vote this time, both sides are in overdrive.

Vermont and Iowa already seem to suggest a huge margin of victory for the Dems in the Presidential races and as history dictates, the congress should follow suit.

Of course people like Tom Delay (disgraced GOP'er) are still gloating about the good ole days, and Newt even says he is likely to run for President in 2008 on 90.9 KCBI's "Jerry Johnson Live". Needless to say, his diehard supporters, all 10 of them, are pumped. We will see what Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have to say about that as Newt doesn't seem to have much chance of attracting anyone other than those who have read Meine Kampf twice, despite Newt's distancing himself from Bush, "Bush reminds me of Carter".

He will no doubt run on "values" despite his forced resignation for hypocrisy while trying to bring down Clinton. Maybe, there will be a new dictionary soon that will help him to redefine what most Americans think "values" are.

As the Dems in congress recently caved on war funding in order to get an increase in the minimum wage, many are accusing them of breaking promises. The real test will be in the next funding round in the fall. If they end this war or significantly pull back to a supervisory role, Dems will regain the faith of those who wanted everything now.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

How can you run on perpetual war, mind numbing deficits, obscene tax cuts to those who didn't need them, an erosion of civil liberties, pervasive corruption, highjacking the justice system, sounds like a winner to me?

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